tvp1
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
A few thoughts bouncing around in my head…
The most recent depth chart (here: http://northcarolinastate.scout.com/2/898977.html) breakdown by class is very interesting:
Among recruited 4-year players:
R-Sr: 6 offense, 3 defense
Sr/R-Jr. 3 offense, 1 defense
Jr/R-So: 4 offense, 2 defense
So/R-Fr: 5 offense, 6 defense
True Freshmen: 2 offense, 2 defense
Former Walk-ons: 2 offense, 3 defense
JUCOs: 0 offense, 5 defense.
Three pieces of information stick out:
First, the So/R-Fr class – TOB’s first full class – takes up a full quarter of the depth chart already.
Second, the “lost class” of 2006 – the redshirt juniors and true seniors that should be the backbone of a team – are virtually nonexistent on the depth chart.
Third, the defense right now is largely a patchwork affair of ex-Junior College players, walkons, and freshmen.
Let’s pretend that all of our many injured players were healthy. How would that change the depth chart? Here’s a projection:
R-Sr: 7 offense, 3 defense (adding Eugene)
Sr/R-Jr. 4 offense, 3 defense (Adding Morgan, Irving, Walker, Bowens, dropping Augustin)
Jr/R-So: 6 offense, 3 defense (Adding Reiskamp, Crawford, Vermiglio)
So/R-Fr: 4 offense, 5 defense (Adding Jackson, dropping Grant, Graham, Wallace)
True Freshmen: 0 offense, 1 defense (Dropping Bishop, Wentz, Washington)
Former Walk-ons: 1 offense, 2 defense (Dropping Ritcher, Cureton)
JUCOs: 0 offense, 5 defense.
The numbers even out a little bit but still the “lost class” has less presence than the So/R-Fr class.
This, to me, is why it’s unreasonable to expect a full breakout year until 2011. When that talented So/R-Fr class that right now is getting lots of experience becomes the veteran Sr/R-Jr backbone, we should have one hell of a team. Until then, we will be behind the 8 ball to some extent due to Chuck’s poor recruiting and abnormally high attrition. We should go bowling this year and next but I look for 2011 (when we'll also have a pretty favorable schedule) to be the year when we could be a top 10-15 team.
SouthernWolf
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
Great analysis tvp1, I agree with you totally. These injuries that are forcing true freshmen on the two deep might hurt a little now but should definitely be paying dividends by 2011. Does anyone know whats up with Markus Khun? I thought he might be a force this year but I havent seen him.
I *think* I heard that Kuhn and Curtis Underwood are being redshirted this year due to depth at those positions. I LOVE the idea of strategically redshirting players like this in the middle of their eligibility. Only good things can come from this in future years.
My big concern is the quality and depth on the defensive line. We will lose four starters this year and most of the backups are Juniors. What do we have behind all of them? Almost nothing, imho.
Additionally, Michael Lemon is listed as a Junior. Is that right?
RickJ
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
Great stuff! Lemon is a junior and cannot redshirt. He has already taken his redshirt year with sitting out and the transfers. Regarding Kuhn - he may be old but he is just two years removed from playing club football in Germany. Another way to look at the progress this staff has made in two years is that Kuhn had to start as a true freshman on the road against Boston College in 2007.
I've mentioned this before but the Junior College recruits by this staff has had a huge impact on the defense. Lemon & Mageo are backing up this year and likely starters next year. The same thing happened with Holmes & Burgess. It looked like Ruiz was going to be a whiff but he is looking OK so far as the punter.
SeaWolf
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
tvp: So then the question is do you think we should play highly touted recruits like Crisp next year if you don't think we'll be top 15 material until 2011? If you play guys like that during a building year then you sort of waste eligibility. On the other hand, if they prove themselves, then play them as true freshmen and prep them for the top 15 season.
BJD95
Administrator
Posted 10 months ago
#
Crisp is going to play on Sundays. No reason to save up his eligibility.
I think we'll be Top 20-25 caliber next year, and that's enough to be a serious ACC championship contender.
primacyone
Member
Posted 10 months ago
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The secondary certainly looks to have a good bit of future potential. I've been pleasantly surprised so far with the play of the young guys in the secondary.
tvp1
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
SFN: Thanks for putting this on the front page! I had a feeling that this post would generate a more interesting conversation here than other places.
I agree, if you look at a projected depth chart in two years, the only question mark is the DL. The staff has done a great job finding JC's who can play on the DL and we probably will need a few more in the next couple of years. Redshirting Kuhn would really help here.
SeaWolf: I think TOB has the right philosophy on redshirting - in general freshmen redshirt, but the ones who are good enough to see significant playing time right away will play. I'm glad that he doesn't burn redshirt years to play a guy for just a few snaps like Chuck did at times. I think in the future you will see less true freshman play because we'll have more and better talented players ahead of them. My comment wasn't really geared towards that - just an observation that it will take two more years, IMO, before we have enough talented depth throughout the roster to seriously compete.
Who knows though - we are already ahead of schedule in the rebuilding process. The 07 team should have finished about 3-9 based on the stats. Last year's team got to a bowl, which I don't think many expected. The conference looks so weak this year that we could end up a top 20-25 team if our offense gets it together.
BJD: If Crisp enrolls in January, it would not shock me if he started from day one at RT.
VaWolf82
Administrator
Posted 10 months ago
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This type of analysis often spawns at least one of these false proclamations:
1) You have to have alot of RS JRs (and older) in your starting lineup to be successful.
2) We will be good in _____ because we will have alot of RS Jrs (and up) in the starting lineup.
Experience matters, but so does talent. Right now, I don't see State being a top-15 team in 2011.
tvp1
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
^Why is (1) a false proclamation? It might be false for the Florida and USCs of the world, but I take it for granted that we will not and cannot recruit at the Florida/USC level year after year. That leaves building a team of good, experienced players as our path to success (augmented with some precious younger players). That's pretty much how the Gator Bowl team was built. And that's how TOB did it at BC - look at the two very experienced teams that won the division right after he left. And as for (2), I look at the probable 2011 depth chart and see enough talented and experienced players that we could well be a top 15, ACC title contending team by then.
The way that Amato would burn years of eligibility for youngsters to run down the sidelines on three or four kickoffs per year was dumbfounding. That kind of true idiocy was inexcusable. At the time, I just shoot my head and presumed that he knew what he was doing. I was wrong.
TheCOWDOG
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
I'd go one step in this direction...just one example.
1971 3-8
1972 7-4-1 Peach Bowl clobbering of WVU rank #18
Depth Chart: Starters Backup
OL 1 sr 4 soph 1 jr 4 soph
TE 1 sr 1 fr
WR 2 sr 2 fr
RB 2 jr 2 soph
QB 1 jr 1 fr
DL 3 sr 1 jr 3 jr 1 fr
LB 2 sr 1 soph 2 soph 1 fr
DB 4 sr 1 jr 3 soph
* No redshirts ( 1st year of frosh eligible )
Offense 4sr 4jr 10soph 4fr
Defense 9sr 5jr 6soph 2fr
At a glance, our current squad seems to have more experience than this sample '72 squad.
Yet as VaWolf82 pointed out, maybe not as talented.
BTW all 4 losses came by way of top 20 or top 10 teams
packalum44
Member
Posted 10 months ago
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TOB has once again proven that he can find hidden gems. Funny how the 3 star FL recruit, James Washington, is seeing more playing time as a true freshman than the RS FR 5 star (at a point in time - demoted to 4) recruit Brandon Barnes. That's not a knock on BB as his upside is unlimited...rather its a testament to TOB and staff's consistent ability to find recruiting gems.
Others to note: TJ Graham, CJ Wilson, Jake Vermiglio, Rashard Smith, Earl Wolff, Gary Grant
old13
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
OK, lets just look at the 2008-2010 (as we now know) classes in 2010 - particularly the OL. (We always seem to be able to put together pretty good Ds and skill players. RW could still be playing then. If not, MG will be here.) There could be a starting line of say Sam Jones, Denzelle Good, Camden Wentz, R. J. Mattes and Robert Crisp. That's one 5-star, three 4-stars and a 3-star. Backups could be at least 3-star recruits looking at the 2008-2010 classes with Vermiglio and Lawson from the 2007 class. TE's would be Mario Carter and Asa Watson (George Bryan being in the 2007 class.) Obviously RB would be well staffed looking at our current roster. Tony Creecy and T.J. Graham would be at WR with Donald Bowens, Owen Spenser, Darrell Davis, Jarvis Williams and Jay Smith from other classes. Seems to me that this could be a very good O. Now assuming that the D is no worse than the last couple of years, 2010 looks like it could be a very good year for Pack FB - not a top 10 team with an OL that young. But certainly a top 25 capability.
VaWolf82
Administrator
Posted 10 months ago
#
^Why is (1) a false proclamation?
The best defense that State has ever had (and probably likely ever to have) had four So or RS-So on the DL.
(And it is too often used as an excuse leading up to WTNY.)
old13
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
^ I presume you're talking about the Pack's Gator Bowl year. Maybe one has to define "successful." Certainly last year FSU did pretty well considering they had 2-3 freshmen on the OL. But they weren't a top 15 team. If you define "successful" as a top 15 team or an "elite" team, then I think that (1) is true. If you define "successful" as having a winning season, or even being top 30, then (1) is probably false. VaTech is a good example. They generally don't get alot of elite recruits. But in the years they've been most successful, I would say that most of their starters were at least juniors, if not RS juniors. But I think if you look at the teams that are consistently "elite" (which VaTech is not), they have the elite recruits and mostly upper classmen starters on the O and D.
TheCOWDOG
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
'82 that's why I put up that "sample" post. Experience is relative. College game day players are not.
And as Gump's mom once said, " Ya never know what ya get."
tvp1
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
"^Why is (1) a false proclamation?
The best defense that State has ever had (and probably likely ever to have) had four So or RS-So on the DL."
And that team went 5-6. If we could recruit those types of players at every position, then I'd agree with you. But I don't think we can.
McPete
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
whatever year Reggie Herring was here, is that the defense considered our best ever? I think that's the 2004 team that went 5-6.
VaWolf82
Administrator
Posted 10 months ago
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"And that team went 5-6. If we could recruit those types of players at every position, then I'd agree with you. But I don't think we can. "
That team only needed a QB....not more talent at every position.
1.21 Jigawatts
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
I’ve been working on something since the middle of the summer and after finally finishing it there is a relevant thread to post it. It started off with always hearing about how “YOUNG” UNX is and then I keep hearing the media say how “Young” a team is so I thought I’d look at it by the numbers. Going back to 2006 up to opening day of 2009 I looked at each team in the ACC under 4 categories: (1) Percent of scholarship JRs/Srs on the team for that year who were recruited (essentially eliminating all walk-ons and former walk-ons, (2) Percent of Returning Starters, (3) Percent of Returning Lettermen (each school classifies lettermen differently), and (4) Percent of JRs/SRs listed on the first Depth Chart. I also included how many ACC regular season wins and if they won the division or conference but didn’t include the championship win. I ranked them 1-12 and then averaged out the ranking. Teams closer to 1 are older and more experienced. Teams closer to 12 are younger and less experienced. (# = Division Champ, ^ = Conference Champ)
Look at how “YOUNG” UNX is in 2009…
I = Class Size (Jrs/Srs %)
II = Returning Starters (%)
III = Returning Lettermen (%)
IV = Depth Chart (Jrs/Srs $)
V = AVG Rank
VI = ACC Wins
2006
Team I II III IV V VI
GT# 40 (2) 64 (4) 84 (1) 60 (2) 2.25 7
Wake#^ 38 (3) 77 (1) 83 (2) 54 (9) 3.75 6
UVA 38 (3) 55 (5) 65 (6) 60 (2) 4.00 4
Miami 38 (3) 50 (8) 72 (4) 60 (2) 4.25 3
BC 38 (3) 55 (5) 70 (5) 4.33 5
NCSU 41 (1) 50 (8) 55 (9) 60 (2) 5.00 2
UMary 36 (7) 68 (3) 73 (3) 51 (10) 5.75 5
Clemson 34 (8) 73 (2) 64 (7) 57 (7) 6.00 5
UNC 28 (11) 55 (5) 53 (10) 63 (1) 6.75 2
VT 32 (9) 41 (11) 58 (6) 8.67 6
Duke 29 (10) 45 (10) 61 (8) 51 (10) 9.50 0
FSU 26 (12) 41 (11) 56 (8) 10.33 3
2007
Team I II III IV V VI
Miami 47 (1) 73 (2) 80 (2) 67 (2) 1.75 2
GT 41 (3) 68 (6) 80 (2) 67 (2) 3.25 4
FSU 43 (2) 64 (7) 81 (1) 64 (4) 3.50 4
Duke 39 (4) 73 (2) 73 (6) 58 (7) 4.75 0
BC# 39 (4) 73 (2) 72 (8) 57 (8) 5.50 6
UVA 35 (8) 86 (1) 65 (11) 62 (5) 6.25 6
UMary 33 (10) 55 (10) 75 (4) 71 (1) 6.25 3
NCSU 39 (4) 59 (8) 73 (6) 57 (8) 6.50 3
Wake 35 (8) 59 (8) 72 (8) 61 (6) 7.50 5
VT#^ 31 (11) 73 (2) 69 (10) 55 (11) 8.50 7
Clemson 36 (7) 50 (11) 64 (12) 56 (10) 10.00 5
UNC 27 (12) 41 (12) 74 (5) 43 (12) 10.25 3
2008
Team I II III IV V VI
Wake 42 (2) 68 (3) 73 (3) 65 (2) 2.50 4
Duke 38 (5) 77 (1) 74 (1) 58 (7) 3.50 1
Clemson 40 (4) 64 (4) 74 (1) 60 (5) 3.50 4
UMary 37 (6) 64 (4) 73 (3) 67 (1) 3.50 4
FSU 46 (1) 59 (6) 73 (3) 56 (8) 4.50 5
Miami 42 (2) 45 (9) 70 (6) 62 (3) 5.00 4
UNC 32 (9) 77 (1) 69 (7) 51 (9) 6.50 4
BC# 37 (6) 55 (7) 67 (9) 59 (6) 7.00 5
VT#^ 30 (10) 45 (9) 60 (10) 62 (3) 8.00 5
NCSU 35 (8) 41 (11) 52 (12) 51 (9) 10.00 4
UVA 29 (11) 50 (8) 57 (11) 49 (11) 10.25 3
GT 29 (11) 36 (12) 68 (8) 40 (12) 10.75 5
2009
Team I II III IV V VI
UNC 43 (1) 68 (3) 69 (5) 65 (1) 2.50
Miami 37 (3) 73 (2) 70 (4) 54 (3) 3.00
Clemson 36 (5) 68 (3) 68 (7) 54 (3) 4.50
NCSU 37 (3) 59 (6) 65 (9) 60 (2) 5.00
BC 39 (2) 59 (6) 71 (3) 48 (9) 5.00
VT 25 (12) 68 (3) 75 (1) 52 (5) 5.25
Duke 36 (5) 45 (11) 73 (2) 52 (5) 5.75
GT 29 (8) 77 (1) 64 (10) 52 (5) 6.00
Wake 29 (8) 59 (6) 69 (5) 50 (8) 6.75
FSU 32 (7) 59 (6) 63 (11) 40 (12) 9.00
UVA 28 (10) 50 (10) 68 (7) 45 (10) 9.25
UMary 28 (10) 45 (11) 57 (12) 45 (10) 10.75
phillypacker
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
jigawatts,
Thanks for your research. It looks like really interesting stuff. Is there anyway to format it so that it is a little easier to understand? Maybe it's just me, but I found it a little tough to follow. Again, thanks for doing this.
1.21 Jigawatts
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
^I have it all in a Word doc in tables and it looks good there. The problem is if I cut and paste I get what you see and I don't know how to do tables here. What I've found when looking at it is Beamer has either better talent than everyone else or he gets more out of his players then the rest. You see in 2007 how UVA won all those close games (86% returning starters). UNX was really young in 2007, in the middle in 2008 (even though all you heard from everyone was that they were the youngest but the facts prove differently), and in 2009 they are the oldest and most experienced. PJ got the maximum out his very young and inexperienced team last year. FSU might not be as good in 2009 as everyone thinks. So many ways to look at the past and to help with the current season but you can't look at the numbers in a vacuum.
VaWolf82
Administrator
Posted 10 months ago
#
If you have an account at a photo-sharing site (flickr, photobucket, and others are free), you could upload your tables as a graphic file and then provide the link to the file here.
TheCOWDOG
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
Jig...pretty work. Adds to the theory that experience is not the end all to be all.
Very much like the '72 team I illustrated where 50% on the 2 deep depth chart had absolutely no prior college game experience going into the first game...none, zero.
Yet wound up in the top twenty by years end.
A good team is comprised with a smattering of superior athletic talent and lesser talents with football accumen, forged by the skill of its' coaches.
1.21 Jigawatts
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
Thanks VaWolf. I'll try that later tonight when I have more time.
4in12
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
A little off topic but I ran across this link:
http://www.roarlions.com/Lion_Sports/Football/Current_Season/2009_beck_gscpow.htm
"University of North Alabama senior quarterback Harrison Beck of Clearwater, Fla., has been named Gulf South Conference Offensive Player of the Week for his performance in UNA's 43-26 win over Henderson State."
packalum44
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
REJOICE....Donald Bowens is back!!!
FunPack
Member
Posted 10 months ago
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"University of North Alabama senior quarterback Harrison Beck of Clearwater, Fla., has been named Gulf South Conference Offensive Player of the Week for his performance in UNA's 43-26 win over Henderson State."
And yet he still had more interceptions than touchdowns. Imagine that. ;)
1.21 Jigawatts
Member
Posted 10 months ago
#
ACC Depth and Experience Tables
http://s580.photobucket.com/albums/ss248/1-21_Jigawatts/ACC%20Experience%20Tables/
Much better format then what was posted days ago. Anytime someone wants to say a team is "YOUNG", please refer to the table to see if they actually are.
