Regardless of NC State's current situation, I'm always interested in the way that the bowls shake out. IMHO, the N&O's Joe Giglio has compiled a recent record of really nailing the bowl analysis as accurately as anyone.
The following are HD's thoughts. She is obviously picking Clemson to beat GT in the Championship game.
I will make one observation --- If the bowl game is obviously going to be Bobby Bowden's last game on the FSU sideline, then I fully expect whichever bowl is the first who can choose the Noles to do do.
Additionally, you have to consider the impact of geography on a few things -- such as Miami's fit in Orlando rather than UNC's fit.
Lastly, you can expect Boston College to go to the last possible bowl for which they are eligible.
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/6946/updated-acc-bowl-projections
* FedEx Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. BCS at large
* Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. SEC
* Gator Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Big East or Notre Dame
* Champs Sports Bowl: North Carolina vs. Big Ten
* Music City Bowl: Miami vs. SEC
* Meineke Car Care Bowl: Florida State vs. Big East
* Emerald Bowl: Boston College vs. Pac-10
* EagleBank Bowl: N/A
* GMAC Bowl: N/A
SeaWolf
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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The best bowl Bobby can hope for is the champs sports bowl. Neither the Gator of Chick-Fil-A will pick them. Yes, it could be a huge storyline, but remember how apathetic FSU fans have been since their season started to suck wind. I think that VT/GT should be flipped, and UNC/FSU should be flipped. No doubt BC will get the suck bowl this year.
Question for you though. Can bowls pass on ACC participants if they so choose? Say this all shakes out as noted, and BC is left for the Emerald. Can they say "No thanks" and pick an at large, therefore relegating BC to the EagleBank? Personally I think that would benefit both the Emerald and EagleBank Bowls. Also, BC Fans would be much more willing to go to a game in DC that San Fran.
First, bowls canNOT pass on ACC teams if a team is eligible for the bowl's selection. The bowl could try to work a deal with the ACC, and other bowls to effectively swap the selection if there was some reason to do so.
The bowls that you think may pass on FSU because of attendance will more than be able to offset the attendance issue with huge television numbers. People will watch Bowden's last game, regardless.
I only 11 years old, and I still remember watching Bear Bryant's last game in the friggin Liberty Bowl in 1982.
CaptainCraptacular
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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Assuming GT beats UGA and then Clemson beats GT in the Championship Game... That would make GT 11-2 and I believe still in the conversation for an at-large BCS berth.
There would be 4 at-large bids of which 2 are a lock:
1) Alabama/Florida
2) TCU
That leaves the following teams with realistic chances at slots 3 and 4:
Boise State (12-0)
Iowa (10-2)
Penn State (10-2)
GT (if they beat UGA and lose to Clemson to go 11-2)
Oklahoma State (if they beat Oklahoma to go 10-2)
Texas (if they lose in the Big 12 championship game to go 12-1)
Cincinnati (if they lose to Pitt therefore losing the Big East but still go 11-1)
No other teams have a realistic shot. Oregon has 2 losses but they control their own destiny for the Rose Bowl. Beat Oregon State and they are Pac-10 champs. Lose and they have 3 losses which isn't going to get them at at-large berth.
Lots of football left to play before the picture is clearer, but its still possible this is the year the ACC gets 2 in the BCS.
Wulfpack
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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That would indeed be huge for our conference if it pans out. Too bad we had nothing to do with it if it does come to fruition.
http://www.carolinamarch.com/2009/11/21/1168300/the-acc-bowl-picture
With Florida State's win and Duke's loss today, the flight to bowl eligibility has officially pulled away from the gate. The conference will have seven teams in the postseason, which given that there are agreements with nine bowls, leaves the EagleBank Bowl in D.C. and the GMAC in Mobile out in the cold. The teams going bowling are Georgia Tech, Clemson, UNC, Virginia Tech, Miami, Boston College and FSU.I think the best the Heels can hope for is the Champs Sports Bowl. The Orange obviously goes to team that wins in Tampa. The Peach will take Clemson if they lose, and if they pass on Georgia Tech - which they'll only be able to do if the Hokies win out - they'll certainly grab Virginia Tech. The Gator will take whichever Tech is still available, leaving the Champs to pick from two Florida teams, UNC, or Boston College. No idea how the last three spots shake out, although I'd think BC as the smallest name and thinnest fan base will be the last kid picked on the playground. Ironically, that's the better destination, as I'd rather see San Francisco than Nashville or Charlotte.
VaWolf82
Administrator
Posted 8 months ago
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but its still possible this is the year the ACC gets 2 in the BCS.
Thanks for the laugh.
tjfoose1
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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I think that VT/GT should be flipped
SeaWolf, I doubt GT and the Chick-fil-A bowl want to match up again this year. GT went in 2008, and considering the school is in Atlanta, I doubt they pair up again for the second consecutive year.
If Clemson loses the Championship game and UNC wins next week, don't be surprised if the Heels slide into Atlanta. But hopefully after Saturday, UNC won't be an option.
SeaWolf
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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@ tjfoose
That's the reasoning. GT fans and students will eat up tickets to go to a "home game." However, I guess VT would sell the near allotment as well. I suppose GT fans are willing to make the trip from Atlanta to Jacksonville.
The other problem is that GT got trounced, and a very promising bowl game became a snoozer. Not likely a mistake that Chick-Fil-A wants to repeat.
tjfoose1
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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SeaWolf - yeah, I'm with you... but usually bowls shy away from the same school in consecutive years, if they can help it. GT would be great for ticket sales, but the city and the commercial interests would prefer out of town money... the economy is the wild card though, so who knows.
Best scenario for the bowl is GT beats Clemson, then Altanta gets either VT, possibly Clemson (though they probably go to the Gator), or UNC. All three will bring big fan contingents.
SeaWolf
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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Honestly, I don't have faith in UNC fans to drive more than a few hours to get to their bowl. Really Atlanta and Charlotte are the best options for them. Music City is out IMO. Clemson in Atlanta would be huge.
Check this out, UNC not even in contention according to Chick-Fil-A directors:
tjfoose1
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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Oops... my thoughts that UNC could possibly slide to the Atlanta was based on thinking Atlanta got the 3rd selection, after the Gator. My mistake.
I was thinking the pecking order of the Chick-Fil-A and Gator swapped next year. When in fact, the Gator drops its ACC tie in next year and the pecking order had already changed. Duh.
tjfoose1
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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ok, I wasn't so far off afterall.
http://www.wralsportsfan.com/unc/story/6475914/
Gary Stokan said the Atlanta bowl is considering Georgia Tech, Clemson, UNC, Miami and Virginia Tech with a week to play in the regular season. The Chick-fil-A has the second selection among ACC teams, after the BCS.
Wolfman646
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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I think that Clemson and the Techs fill the top 3 spots. Clemson and Va Tech are probably the best traveling fanbases in the conference. Ga Tech has 10 wins and there is a lot of excitement around there. Even if the Chick-fil-A Bowl passes on them for Va Tech, I think the Gator would take them.
BC is obviously last pick so I think the real shake-up is between FSU, Miami, and UNC.
Here's how I see it playing out
* FedEx Orange Bowl Georgia Tech
* Chick-fil-A Bowl Clemson
* Gator Bowl Virginia Tech
* Champs Sports Bowl Miami
* Music City Bowl: Florida State
* Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina
* Emerald Bowl: Boston College
jaybird80
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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Some of my UNC "friends" are saying that the (Peach) Chick-Fil-A Bowl will not take UNC because the Heels open the season there next year against 'Bama(?). They are actually hoping for the Music City Bowl in Nashville.
LRM
Administrator
Posted 8 months ago
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GT fans barely travel for a home game, and they didn't travel to Jacksonville for either the ACC championship game or the Gator Bowl a few years back. Both Carolina and Clemson make more sense in the Peach.
As much as we all hate to admit it, Carolina fans travel well and they're a popular draw, and they're a hot team, so I imagine the Peach would like to have them.
November 30th Update
Giglio has an update. IMHO, he gets the bowl progjections the most right and the the earliest each year.
Everything below this is a quote from his piece:
The outcome of the Georgia Tech-Clemson ACC title game will affect the first four bowl tie-ins for the ACC but not likely the last three.
North Carolina (Music City), Florida State (Meineke) and Boston College (Emerald) are tracking towards the last three tie-ins.
The top four — Orange, Chick-fil-A, Gator and Champs — will have to wait for the title game on Saturday in Tampa, Fla.
Two scenarios to consider, Georgia Tech wins:
Orange: GT vs. TCU/Penn State
Chick-fil-A: Virginia Tech vs. Ole Miss/South Carolina
Gator: Miami vs. West Virginia
Champs: Clemson vs. Northwestern
Clemson wins:
Orange: Clemson vs. TCU/Penn State
Chick-fil-A: GT vs. Ole Miss/South Carolina
Gator: VT vs. West Virginia
Champs: Miami vs. Northwestern
Regardless, the last three tie-ins potentially look like:
Music City: UNC vs. Kentucky
Meineke: FSU vs. Cincinnati-Pitt loser
Emerald: Boston College vs. Stanford
The biggest mystery is what the Gator would do with the choice of Clemson or Miami. The Tigers went to Jacksonville last year, and lost, but sold a ton of tickets.
You factor in the Tigers are playing in the state of Florida on Saturday, in Tampa, and the Gator would likely take Miami over a road-weary Clemson, which also would have lost two straight to end the season.
Miami has more television value and a history with West Virginia, which would offset some of the Hurricanes' shortcomings as a ticket draw.
Clemson, at 6-2, couldn't be jumped by a 4-4 team for the Champs.
Charlotte would be ecstatic with FSU and continue their improbable streak of strong matchups. The Cincy-Pitt loser (they play Saturday with the winner going to the BCS) wouldn't sell a ton of tickets but would likely be ranked in the top 25
RickJ
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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Clemson wins:
Orange: Clemson vs. TCU/Penn State
Chick-fil-A: GT vs. Ole Miss/South Carolina
While this could happen, I don't think GT or the Chick-fil-A would like to see GT in their game two years in a row. I could easily see a VPI - GT swap with Chick-fil-A and the Gator.
leewolf
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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Clemson is a lock for the Orange or Peach. Just depends on what happens in Tampa. Georgia Tech cannot fall any farther than the Gator. The BC rule prevents that from happening. Considering their appearance in Peach last year, it is Orange or Gator for the Jackets. Virginia Tech gets the Peach if Clemson wins and the Gator if Georgia Tech wins.
Then things start to get interesting. The Bowden storyline could compel a bowl to take FSU that wouldn't have normally. I still think Miami is the most attractive team left though and goes to Orlando, followed by UNC to the Music City, FSU to the Meineke, and BC relegated to San Francisco.
TNPackFan
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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The Gator wants FSU:
Catlett, the president of the Gator Bowl, said Tuesday that his bowl has the right to invite Bowden, who announced his retirement on Tuesday, and the Seminoles despite their 4-4 ACC record.
"We want Florida State," Catlett said. "We want Bobby Bowden to end his career in the Gator Bowl."
VaWolf82
Administrator
Posted 8 months ago
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ACC rules won't allow the Gator to take FSU. I expect phones to be ringing all day tomorrow in Tallahassee, G'boro, and Jacksonville.
VaWolf82
Administrator
Posted 8 months ago
#
Peach is going to be VT vs Tenn
islandbreeze
Member
Posted 8 months ago
#
The Gator will pick FSU inspite of "ACC Rules".
There is no contract with the ACC and the Gator next year.
Mandel's bowl projections
JasonP
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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The Florida folks involved are going to make sure that it's FSU vs WVU in the Gator. Bowden will coach his last game in the Gator Bowl's last game featuring an ACC team, against his former employer. It's almost like the script was prewritten.
WolfInVolCountry
Member
Posted 8 months ago
#
Peach is going to be VT vs Tenn
VA... that is big news in E. Tenn. For years, people have wanted to see a Vol/Hokie matchup. They have even talked about bringing in a "field" to Bristol Motor Speedway and trying to sell out the 150K seats (kinda laughable). At any rate it is generating a ton of buzz for bragging rights along the I81 corridor.
VaWolf82
Administrator
Posted 8 months ago
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They have even talked about bringing in a "field" to Bristol Motor Speedway
I had forgotten about that.
Wulfpack
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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Va Tech/Tennessee is going to be one hell of a game. Both defenses will dominate the opposing offense. I give a slight edge to the Hokies. Can't wait to see that one.
WolfInVolCountry
Member
Posted 8 months ago
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Of course a Wolfpack tie-in is Monte Kiffin as the DC for the Vols.
I think that I recall him (circa 1982) calling an onside kick at the beginning of the second half of the Carolina game at CF. We were ahead, so God knows why he did that. Anyway, they recovered and drove the short-field for the TD. Momentum shift... we lost. Turned out to be a stinker of a head coach, but is a great DC.
g6bentgrass
Member
Posted 7 months ago
#
I heard Swofford say on TV during the Clemson/GT game, that the Gator Bowl can contractually take FSU if they want.
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